Situational Predictors of Negotiation and Violence in Hostage and Barricade Incidents
Situational Predictors of Negotiation and Violence in Hostage and Barricade Incidents
Criminal Justice and Behavior, Ahead of Print.
We analyzed a data set containing 7,216 hostage and barricade incidents that had been reported to the Federal Bureau of Investigation over a 35-year period. From two subsamples of the data set, we identified potential predictors of important outcomes—resolution by negotiation or surrender and violence after onset. In a third subsample, we combined and weighted the potential predictors to form two actuarial tools. We used three additional subsamples in the data set to cross-validate and calibrate the scores of each tool. Predictive validity was acceptable across all subsamples.
We analyzed a data set containing 7,216 hostage and barricade incidents that had been reported to the Federal Bureau of Investigation over a 35-year period. From two subsamples of the data set, we identified potential predictors of important outcomes—resolution by negotiation or surrender and violence after onset. In a third subsample, we combined and weighted the potential predictors to form two actuarial tools. We used three additional subsamples in the data set to cross-validate and calibrate the scores of each tool. Predictive validity was acceptable across all subsamples.
Daniel J. Neller