Triggering factors: Examining the influence of alcohol outlets and neighborhood context on firearm violence

Abstract

Despite evidence that shootings frequently occur near bars or liquor stores, studies have not definitively determined whether alcohol outlets disproportionately influence firearm incidents relative to non-firearm ones. The current study addresses this omission by examining the per square mile density of alcohol outlets and gun use in assaultive violence and shootings. Using 6 years of data (2017–2022) from a large southwestern city, we compare on- and off-site alcohol outlets and firearm versus non-firearm assaults. Our models also account for census tract characteristics, including socioeconomic disadvantage, racial/ethnic composition, and factors related to guardianship and firearm prevalence. We find that the density of alcohol outlets is associated with higher rates of gun and non-gun assaults, and this association is greater for non-firearm assaults. This relationship is largely driven by on-site outlets and further nuanced by the spatial concentration of outlets in the neighboring tracts. Our analyses show limited evidence that alcohol outlets influence shootings as this association becomes nonsignificant once spatial outlets are considered. Together, these findings suggests policies aimed at reducing gun violence centered on alcohol outlets may be too specific, ignoring other types of violent crime that may be more pervasive for various types of alcohol establishments.