The company you keep: The influence of popular delinquents and deviant brokers on offending trajectories

Abstract

Research on how delinquent peer associations affect individuals’ life courses is limited. This paper addresses this gap by examining delinquent peer network characteristics and their impact on offending trajectories through social network analysis (SNA) and group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM). SNA helps minimize same-source bias and offers a detailed view of delinquent peer networks, whereas GBTM identifies developmental pathways. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health), this study explores how the popularity and betweenness centrality of delinquent peers affect an individual’s placement in offending trajectories. Four trajectories were identified: non-offending, adolescent-limited (AL), low-offending-desister, and high-offending-desister. The study finds that delinquent friend popularity increases the likelihood of placement in AL and high-offending-desister trajectories, whereas delinquent peer betweenness centrality is also associated with increased placement in the low-offending-desister and high-offending-desister trajectories. These findings enhance theoretical understanding by showing how the unique positionality of delinquent peers influences offending behavior over time. The results suggest that public policy should focus on understanding adolescent friendships and providing appropriate restorative resources.