Commission pathways for sexual offences against children: A novel methodological approach exposing distinct pathways as a function of offending history

Abstract

Purpose

Using neural network analysis, we examined how specific dispositional and situational factors influence pathways for the commission of sexual offending against children. Use of non-linear multifactorial models is still developing in psychological and criminological research, making this a unique contribution to these fields.

Method

We used prior offence status as the outcome variable in a multi-stage analytical strategy that included chi-squared analysis, sequential binary regression and neural network modelling. Subjects came from a database containing pre-collected psychological and criminological information on Western Australian men who had sexually offended. An initial sample of offenders convicted of sexual offences against children (N = 539) guided the selection of relevant variables. Nearly half of these offenders had prior charges for violent, sexual or combined violent and sexual offences (N = 260).

Results

Offenders with prior charges followed three pathways: impulsivity, congruence and sexualized coping. Each reflected known criminogenic risk factors and offender models. Offenders without prior charges followed two pathways: opportunity and sexual dysfunction. Differences and inconsistencies across pathways revealed gaps in current knowledge about this cohort.

Conclusion

The study’s findings support the presence of distinct pathways. New insights into how individual dispositions interact with situational factors to influence sexual offending against children can directly inform risk assessment, rehabilitative treatment and offence prevention.