From novice to expert: A rational choice examination of detection avoidance strategies among sexual offenders

Abstract

Purpose

Existing research has conceptualized criminal expertise among sexual offenders through the combined examination of modus operandi sophistication and detection avoidance strategies. This study investigated whether forensic and investigative awareness strategies, considered independently from the modus operandi, constitute a meaningful indicator of criminal expertise.

Methods

The sample comprised 1349 solved cases of sexual assault with penetration committed by male strangers against adult female victims in France between 2001 and 2018. A latent class analysis was conducted using six detection avoidance variables, followed by bivariate analyses to assess the external validity of the identified classes.

Results

Five distinct classes emerged, forming a coherent continuum of criminal expertise ranging from Novices, characterized by minimal use of avoidance strategies, to Experts, who combined diverse forensic and investigative awareness strategies. A hierarchical progression from investigative to forensic strategies was observed across classes. External validity analyses showed significant associations between class membership, modus operandi sophistication and offender characteristics.

Conclusions

Detection avoidance strategies alone appear to provide a meaningful indicator of criminal expertise among sexual offenders. These findings support a continuum-based conceptualization of expertise and highlight the value of detection avoidance behaviours for crime scene analysis, offender profiling and the study of criminal decision-making.