Managing uncertainty in the clinical prediction of risk of harm: Bringing a Bayesian approach to forensic mental health

Predicting the likelihood of harm posed by mentally disordered offenders remains controversial. It is proposed that a Bayesian approach may help quantify the uncertainty surrounding such prediction. An example of this approach quantifying the risk of breast cancer in the event of a positive mammogram is provided. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.