Rational choice models of crime decision‐making: A flexible utility framework

Abstract

Rational choice models of the decision to commit a crime have been prominent in the criminological literature for decades. Their theoretical components, however, remain fragmented, leading to misconceptions about the framework’s explanatory power and policy relevance. The present paper aims to synthesize these fragmented theoretical elements and demonstrate the flexibility of rational choice models in accommodating various recent advancements in research on crime decision-making. To do so, we construct a series of equations that formalize the core mechanisms underlying the decision to offend. We begin with a baseline equation derived from Beccaria’s classical deterrence model—centered on the certainty, severity, and celerity of legal sanctions—which is extended to include noncriminal alternatives to crime. We then build on this structure to account for the situational bases for risk perception, discrete stages of the criminal justice process, nonlinear risk processing, ambiguity, moral disutility, safety concerns, and visceral influences such as emotion. The result is a series of compact yet flexible models that address how incentives and constraints shape criminal behavior and that can be used to specify statistical models to test key model predictions.