Explaining Civilian Attacks: Terrorist Networks, Principal-Agent Problems and Target Selection

Terrorist groups exhibit variation in their targeting choices. Why do some groups direct their violence against civilianswhile others limit this occurrence? This study analyzes the network relationships between terrorist groups toelucidate their targeting behavior. Drawing upon insights from the organizational ecology and conflict literatures,we predict that terrorist group affiliates will be significantly more likely than their parent group to attack civiliantargets. Our original principal-agent theory consistently outperforms extant explanations in a multi-method analysisof 238 terrorist groups from 1998 to 2005. These results shed new light on why certain terrorist groups are morelikely than others to target civilians.