An Empirical Analysis of Causes of Islamist Radicalisation: Italian Case Study

This Research Note is based on a doctoral dissertation to be shorty completed at King’s College, London. Itpresents first results of one of the largest quantitative analyses of possible causes of Islamist radicalization inItaly, based on a sample of 440 respondents from 15 Italian cities. The study investigates Muslim respondents’support for violence framed in Islamist religious terms. After defining “Islamist radicalisation”, a large numberof models linking support for violence with various predictor parameters were tested. No statistically significantsupport was found for theories proposing discrimination, economic disparity, outrage at Western foreign policy,oppression of Muslims, traumatic experiences, or any standard sociological variable, including gender andbeing a convert to Islam, as predictors. Similarly, neither “networks” nor rational choice theory was supportedby the data. By contrast, the most significant predictor variables relating to support for violence were takingoffense against offenders of Islam and the endorsement of an Islamic, theocratic form of government (ideology).Social difficulties and uncertainty as for the wish to belong to Italian culture (identity crisis) were marginallysignificant.